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Johan Leman, 24 June 2022

– For four decades Molenbeek has been on an international drugs route running from northern Morocco to the Netherlands via France. All those years “French” have always been involved in the trade. Question: would this suddenly be different now? (Note: this aspect was strongly underexposed in 2014-2016).

– Molenbeek (as an important municipality in the police zone concerned) has – so one says officially – a structural shortage of 170 police officers. The federal Canal Plan has not changed this structurally. Result: possibility of proximity policing? Let’s forget about it.

– Since September 2021, at least 10 shootings have taken place in Molenbeek in 10 months. Two possible explanations: a. shift after Corona from drug dealing in cafés to public space, b. influence of Operation Sky from early 2021.

– The fact that they are young people (say, the front-line workers from the drug dealership) says nothing about whether the fight over the area to be occupied is simply a local matter or is orchestrated at a higher level. In the same way, the fact that it is mainly expressed in Molenbeek says nothing about whether it is a broader fight or not. Again: in 2014-2016, everyone was looking at “Molenbeek”, while “Laeken” (as it turned out later) was just as involved.

This morning, after the 8 o’clock morning news, I heard an interview on the radio with Minister Verlinden, Minister of the Interior. In it, she says she will not promise anything she cannot deliver. And that is a merit in itself today. But for the rest I mainly heard that nothing can/will actually happen. After all… recruitment still has to take place and it has to be done locally. Predictably, this will not yield much and it is not even the fault of the municipality or the local police force. And federally, everything is tight. In other words, there will be consultations and discussions. From what I experienced myself during my public life in the 1990s, I know what this means: there will be a few meetings… and they will come to nothing.

What can one expect? In the best case scenario, the shooting will stop at some point, or at least it will decrease significantly, and this will be due to the fact that a certain group has become dominant, either under the control of a local family or from a larger international organisation.

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